LMT

Bias

SELL

Horizon

Long-term

Key risk

Leadership transition in Aeronautics is a real risk – any change in a business unit that size introduces near-term execution uncertainty. The 200-day SMA at ~$522 is overhead resistance; if LMT can’t reclaim that quickly, the consolidation could extend. And if $500 breaks on volume, the next technical floor is missing until the mid-$400s (Market). But the geopolitical tailwinds, the SBI contract, the oversold extreme, and the lack of bad news all argue that this is a repositioning, not a trend change. The bull case rests on the fact that nothing actually broke – the stock just got thrown out with the bathwater, and the bathwater is now showing signs of settling.

Catalyst watch

Leadership change is the top LMT-specific event – Ulmer's retirement from Aeronautics is orderly but warrants monitoring for execution continuity.