AVGO

Bias

UNDERWEIGHT

Horizon

Long-term

Key risk

The macro risks are real: Goldman’s “AI payoff” question and UBS’s S&P 500 caution (News) could hit richly valued semis in a rotation – but that’s a market-wide risk, not an AVGO-specific one. The bearish MACD divergence needs to be monitored; if price breaks below the $390–400 support zone, a deeper correction to the 50-day around $359 is possible (Market). But the trend is structurally intact unless and until that 50-day is breached. The VCF 9 launch’s revenue impact won’t show up for a quarter or two, giving bears time to argue “show me the money.” And custom ASIC competition from Marvell or in-house designs at hyperscalers is an evergreen risk. None of this cracks the core bull case: a dominant, diversified tech franchise with accelerating product momentum, a golden-cross chart, and a dividend that makes it attractive even through a drawdown. The long side makes sense because the facts have already changed – the market just hasn’t fully priced in the new product cycle story.

Catalyst watch

AVGO is in a strong long-term uptrend with price well above rising 50- and 200-day SMAs — the trend is your friend.